Venezuela – US Dispute: India Likely to Recover Pending Oil Dues

Experts believe that if the United States takes control of or restructures Venezuela’s oil sector, Indian oil companies could stand to benefit significantly. As a result of these developments, it is expected that nearly USD 1 billion (around ₹9,000 crore) in outstanding dues owed to Indian companies by Venezuela could be recovered, and production from oil fields operated by Indian firms in the country could be increased. India was once one of the largest importers of Venezuelan crude, purchasing over 400,000 barrels per day, but suspended imports in 2020 due to US sanctions. Analysts say that if these sanctions are eased, crude imports from Venezuela could resume.

ONGC Videsh, which holds a 40 percent stake in the San Cristobal oil field in eastern Venezuela, has seen production decline sharply due to sanctions and is also awaiting dividend payments of about USD 536 million. Officials estimate that if sanctions are relaxed, rigs and equipment could be moved from ONGC’s fields in Gujarat to San Cristobal, enabling daily production — currently down to 5,000–10,000 barrels — to be increased up to tenfold. Indian companies may also get opportunities to revive production in other Venezuelan oil fields.

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the impact of US–Venezuela developments on India’s overall trade would be minimal. In 2024–25, India’s imports from Venezuela were limited to USD 364.5 million. Experts note that if Venezuela resumes oil exports in the future, it could help stabilise global oil prices and provide India with alternative sources of crude, reducing dependence on Russia.