IMF Raises India’s Growth Outlook Amid Global Uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for the Indian economy despite global uncertainty, rising oil prices and the impact of the US-Iran conflict. The IMF has revised its GDP growth estimate for the 2026–27 financial year from 6.4% to 7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points. It also expects India’s economy to grow by 7% in 2027–28.

The IMF attributed the upward revision to strong domestic demand, continued momentum in the services sector and better-than-expected economic activity. Robust domestic consumption, an expanding domestic market, favourable demographics and structural reforms are also expected to support India’s growth over the medium term.

Despite the improved growth outlook, the IMF has cautioned that inflation remains an area to watch. Consumer price inflation in India is projected to average 5% in 2026–27 before easing to 4.4% in 2027–28. The projections indicate continued growth potential, although global economic uncertainty and fluctuations in oil prices remain important risks.