Fuel Price Hike Likely in November

Economists expect petrol and diesel prices in India to rise in November. Alexandra Hermann Prasad, chief economist at Oxford Economics, has projected a possible hike, citing the upcoming assembly elections in seven states next year. Other economists believe the increase could be around half of the hike announced in May, when the Centre raised fuel prices amid conflict in West Asia.

The expected increase could push retail inflation to 6.2% in the October–December quarter and 6.5% in the first quarter of 2027, potentially exceeding the RBI’s inflation target range of 2% to 6%. In its October monetary policy review, the RBI projected inflation at 6% for October–December, 5.7% for January–March, and 5.2% by the end of the financial year. Oxford Economics, however, expects inflation to reach 5.4% in March.